Oil fell by $5 over the weekend. According to my previous observations I should be predicting gas to fall by a dime in the next few days, but I'm not going to. (Incidently, it's up a nickel today.

I have two reasons I won't make that prediction just yet. The first is that gas normally goes up a bit this time of year as demand starts to increase and refineries switch to their summer mixes. The other is that while I haven't been keeping formal statistics, my feel of the data is that the price doesn't fall quite as reliably as it rises. It will fall, but it might need to wait for oil to fall another $5 and then gas will drop $.20 over a couple weeks. Or it might need to stay this low for a few extra days before speculators settle down and allow it to fall. Or maybe oil companies are just a little greedy or careful about not lowering the price as quickly.

But again, my feeling here after watching the price for a while is that I can't make a good prediction on this one just yet. Not that it won't drop, just that I can't predict it.